
A Primer on CO2 and Energy
Humans are not destroying Earth or the climate. The widespread belief in anthropogenic warming is the result of political idealism, bad science, faulty data, social psychology, and greed. Even though things are starting to go the right direction, the movement toward “net zero” still has a lot of momentum. Entire countries are deindustrializing for the wrong reasons, and the “green energy transition” is a suicide mission that benefits promoters but hurts poor people and the environment hardest.
Businesses can fix this. Business people can stand up and make their voices heard. Executives can tell the world something their employees, customers, and investors need to hear …
Energy is not a toy. It is not a means to a political end. The best energy is affordable, reliable, and scalable. Intermittent renewable sources are unreliable, and hydro is not scalable. Renewables have no place in any electric grid. There is no rush, and there is no need to electrify. Hydrogen should play no role in energy or transportation. Batteries have no place in grid-scale electricity. Markets will continue to allocate resources most effectively, without government incentives and interference.
CO2 is not a pollutant. It is not causing warming. More CO2 would be better. We have at least 200 years’ worth of oil, gas, and coal in the ground, probably several times that. We need more energy, and we have enough time to transition slowly to various nuclear technologies. We should focus on real solutions, reduce real pollution, and make energy affordable for all.
This primer is in seven parts:
About
Climate
Energy
Belief systems
Bad ideas
Solutions
Work with me
1. About me
My name is David Siegel. I wrote my first book on climate change in 1991. Since the mid-1980s, I have over 7,000 hours of study in climate science and energy issues. I’m a member of the CO2 Coalition. I teach a weekly online class on climate science. I want to help people make better decisions. I want to help companies, NGOs, and governments educate their people and the public about the true relationship between climate and energy.
2. Climate
There is no connection between humans adding CO2 to the atmosphere and climate. Earth’s temperature varies naturally on long time scales, and people use short-term changes and graphic images to get you to believe there’s a “crisis” that only governments can solve. This has been the plan from the beginning, and decarbonization is now a $2 trillion industry. Academics and researchers who don’t support the narrative are fired and canceled. The major scientific publications will only publish articles based on the assumption that humans are causing climate change, and all grants require that assumption. There is so much money in the climate story now that no one can question it. Here are the talking points to help you navigate the science. Click on any of these to read more …
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They never show cause. They always just show how hot it is. They never show how cold it is, unless they are trying to explain that global warming causes cooling. Not a single competent peer-reviewed paper has ever shown that increased CO2 from humans has any effect on temperature.
The correlation isn't even very good, unless you "adjust" by lowering temperatures in the 1930s and only use urban thermometers for temperatures since 1980. Data has been manipulated for political purposes by many agencies.
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Their agenda is: one world government. In everything they do, they try to insert themselves as the definitive governing body. Yet despite a small number of wins, they have a track record of making things worse, not better.
In the case of climate, the IPCC writes their Summary for Policymakers first, before the scientific reports come out. They vote on every sentence, with no scientists in the process. The actual reports do not back up what is written in the summaries, and the reports themselves are scientific gobbledygook, while the models have consistently predicted higher temperatures than are recorded. In this video, I show secretary general Guterres lying about sea-level rise. For more on the UN, I have a detailed look at how they treat whistleblowers, and you can learn more from UN Watch and Net Zero Watch.
Not even ten percent of scientists agree that humans are causing dramatic climate change, and those who do are on the payroll for the purpose of confirming political goals and getting more grant money. It is career limiting not go with the herd. I maintain a growing list of retired scientists and researchers, two of whom have Nobel prizes in physics, who all say more CO2 would be better for the environment.
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The relationship of the sun and earth involves the complex paths they take, the roundness of the earth’s orbit, the angle of the earth’s tilt compared to the plane of the orbit around the sun, the precession that moves the north-south axis like a wobbling top, where the continents are and how they move, the oceans and their currents, the pull of other planets, and even our 250-million-year trip around the solar system. Looking at temperature graphs over these time scales shows a record of the incoming solar energy.
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Where the land is determines how the incoming sunlight affects temperature. At the moment, our northern hemisphere has much more land than the southern hemisphere, but this has not always been the case. There have been times when most of the continents were together, when there was an ocean around the equator, and when ocean access to the poles was blocked by land. When the planet can’t easily ventilate heat, heat builds up. So just by distributing the same amount of land differently, under the same conditions of incoming solar energy, the earth can have vastly different climate regimes.
Remarkably, on the scale of 100s of millions of years, the solar system’s trip around the galaxy has a huge influence!
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It goes up and down. The cycles themselves become stronger and weaker in a 100-year cycle called the Feynman cycle. Solar cycles were largely responsible for the spike in temperatures in the 1930s, 80s, and 90s. El Ninos and La Nina years are related to this 11-year cycle, because they provide a way to move excess heat poleward as needed.
Years with high sunspot numbers have more incoming solar energy than quiet years with few sunspots. The Bray sunspot cycle is 2,500 years. The Eddy cycle is 1,000 years. These interact to form compound highs and lows like the Roman Warm Period, Little Ice Age, etc.
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The 65-year cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) largely drives our North American and European temperature fluctuations in concert with the various solar cycles mentioned above.
The AMO is a cycle. It goes up, it turns around and goes down. It is not linear. It is only in danger of "shutting down" or “collapsing” in movies and in computer models.
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The major ocean currents work together to transport heat. From the tropics, 20 percent of the incoming energy goes poleward to the temperate zones, where it creates storms and hurricanes. Two thirds of of the energy goes poleward via the atmosphere, while one third goes through ocean currents like the Gulfstream, which gives Europe its mild temperatures given its latitude.
Shortwave energy from the sun can penetrate the ocean skin and warm the upper layer of the ocean down to tens of meters. That heat can then be transported down and westward as part of the heat engine that drives our ocean currents.
About 20 percent of the sun's energy going into the tropics makes its way poleward. Heated air and water coming from the temperate zones melts ice in summer far more than just the direct solar effect. That heat is stored as it melts ice during summer. During the polar winter, that same heat is released to space as the ice reforms. This has been happening for millions of years and has nothing to do with humans. NASA can see the excess heat escaping to space, but they never mention it, because that negates their political agenda.
No amount of any greenhouse gas can cause solar energy to penetrate the oceans. It's impossible for this downwelling longwave radiation to penetrate the ocean skin, not even one mm. Saying that warmer surface air mixes down into the ocean violates the second law of thermodynamics, as the surface is usually cooler than the water.
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In January, earth is coldest overall, even though it is 3 million miles closer to the sun than it is in July, when it is warmest and farthest away. This is because the land is in the north, and the land has sinks and feedbacks that impact global temperature, whereas the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean.
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Even though CO2 is spread throughout the atmosphere evenly, so that the plateau has more CO2 now than it did 50 years ago, temperatures there haven’t changed at all. In fact, recent studies show that Antarctica was a bit warmer just 1,500 years ago, and there was no “collapse” or ecosystem destruction.
Temperatures on the East Antarctic plateau are extremely cold. Despite a worldwide increase in CO2, they have not changed since we started measuring there.
When you hear stories of “high” temperatures on Antarctica, they come from West Antarctica, an archipelago of over 130 volcanos, many of which are active. It’s not unusual to record temperatures above 20 degrees C in this region.
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About 60 percent of the solar energy arriving at the equator makes its way to the Arctic. It is stored there in summer (melting ice) and then released in winter (refreezing) as the energy is released to space. This is a normal feature of the climate system. The Arctic gains and loses a thin layer of ice each year equivalent to the area of the continental United States. A reasonable amount of variance or trend is natural and has nothing to do with humans.
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Even though CO2 is a well-mixed gas around the globe, temperatures in the tropics are not increasing. They are always very consistent, because it is very moist and the greenhouse effect from water vapor keeps nights quite warm.
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Desert temperatures around the world show no trend in the last 100 years. In fact, the 1930s were hotter in Death Valley than any temperatures measured since.
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Albedo is the reflectance of the earth’s surface and atmosphere. A tiny change in albedo can cause huge changes in earth’s climate. NASA has measured a drop in albedo of about one percent, which has caused ocean and surface temperatures to rise. That’s what’s really going on. Changes in albedo are natural and to be expected.
In addition to the decrease in albedo, the Hunga Tonga eruption added to the surface temperature and its effects are still being felt today. That volcano was about 100m under water. It was in the perfect position to throw 146 metric megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, increasing stratospheric water vapor by about ten percent. That was enough added greenhouse effect to send more energy back down to the surface to create the temperature spikes we have seen. It’s dissipating now and will be mostly out of the stratosphere in another five years or so. Because of the wind patterns and the fact that the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean, the northern hemisphere showed a dramatic increase. The climate models never predicted anything like this.
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Places like California and Australia have huge areas of grassland that evolved with fire. Large fires are caused by a combination of wet springs, dry autumns, and winds — as they always have been. There is no “attribution study” that shows CO2 has any impact. What has changed is the number of expensive structures in harm’s way and poor land management that allows fuel to build up nearby. All grasslands and temperate forests are fire prone — they are just waiting for the right conditions, and the fire benefits the ecosystem.
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If you think about it, droughts are more about humans experiencing periods of low rain than they are about periods of low rain, which of course are natural. The Palmer drought-severity index shows no trend over the last 150 years. The impact on humans has increased, but the natural phenomenon has not.
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Statistically, hurricane frequency has declined, but we have to estimate hurricanes of the past, before satellites, so a small decline isn’t much of a trend. Storms are not meaningfully more powerful, but humans have built much more in their path, causing dramatic damage and pictures that alarmists claim is “fueled by climate change.” But the data scientists at the National Hurricane Data Center do not agree.
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Floods are dramatic only because humans make bad decisions. Again, people build near water, people build dams and manage resources. When you see images of dramatic flooding, it’s usually due to poor local infrastructure and water management. Cities are designed for normal, not rare, conditions, so when there’s a rare condition somewhere in the world, it gets a lot of ink, because rare conditions are common if you look around the entire globe. What is increasing is the number of images of natural disasters shared on social media.
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Sea levels have been rising at a rate of about 1 inch per decade since before 1800 with no acceleration. Around 6,000 years ago, sea level was about 2 meters higher than it is today. At the peak of the last ice age, 22,000 years ago, sea levels were 120m lower, because all that water was locked up in ice. Sea-level variation is the natural consequence of cyclic warming and cooling, combined with land rising and falling. Sea level in southern Sweden and Alaska is dropping, because in those places the land is rising rather quickly. Stories of “acceleration” were driven by a change of instrument on one of the satellites 20 years ago.
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Glaciers move snow from the mountaintops down to the sea. As ice crashes into the sea and drifts away, it provides dramatic footage. As more snow arrives on top to continue the flow, it does not provide dramatic footage. No one sees that. Within the range of natural variance, all glaciers are behaving normally. All glaciers grew in the 1600s to early 1800s, adding a tremendous volume of permanent ice to mountain ranges and coasts. Entire towns in the Alps were swallowed and buried by advancing glaciers. To see it returning back now toward the boundaries of the Medieval Warm Period is not surprising. Almost all glaciers in the world began losing ice in the mid-late 1800s, and much of the current ice loss had already occurred by 1950.
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In 1960, scientists counted roughly 10,000 polar bears. Today, there are at least 30,000, possibly as many as 60,000. Polar-bear numbers are limited by the permits given to seal hunters, who compete with the bears, and by the 800 permits given each year to indigenous tribes to shoot and kill adult bears. Because they are so iconic, groups like Greenpeace and WWF used them as fundraising tools, until the word got out that they had been lying and the bears are no longer threatened.
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The greenhouse effect of CO2 is very real. It is responsible for earth’s mild overnight temperatures, delaying the escape of solar heat to space long enough to make life possible. Without CO2, the earth would be much colder. The earth has always had at least 150 PPM CO2, even when it was forming. Over 50 PPM, increases in CO2 have very diminishing returns. By 200 PPM there is no measurable effect to adding more CO2 to the atmosphere - the curve is virtually flat and has been for millions of years. Doubling the amount of CO2 from here would very likely result in no temperature increase, because the effects are so slight, water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, and the feedback of clouds is unknown.
There have been many times when CO2 was going up and temperature was going down, and vice-versa. As recently as 8,000 years ago, CO2 went down as temperatures went up for about 2,000 years. There have been times in the past when CO2 was more than 20 times higher than it is today, and there was far more plant growth then.
500 million years ago during the Cambrian Explosion, CO2 was at least 2,000 parts per million, temperatures were higher, and life flourished.
CO2 is readily soluble in water. As ocean water gets colder, it outgases CO2, and as it gets warmer it absorbs CO2. This is called Henry’s law. There’s a time lag of several hundred years, but the ice-core data clearly shows CO2 going up and down after temperature changes first.
We have not seen any temperature increases attributable to CO2, and we are very unlikely to see any in the future. The best prediction is “business as usual,” where the AMO and sunspot cycles continue to drive our climate over the next several hundred years.
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A study by the CO2 Coalition, a science advisory group, has shown that the increase in CO2 over the past 150 years is probably close to 100 percent the result of humans burning fossil fuels. Over long periods of time, the oceans will absorb or release CO2 according to their temperature, but that time lag is estimated in the hundreds of years.
NASA has measured an approximate growth of 15% of green land area in the past 30 years. This is in addition to planted cropland. CO2 promotes plant growth.
3. Energy
CO2, energy, and climate have become linked through a purposeful effort that started in the 1950s with the Rockefellers. Their goal was to create an environmental movement that demonized oil and gas, because they knew everyone would need oil and gas, but they also knew how much of it there was. The theory was that turning public opinion against oil and gas would help prevent new companies entering the markets, and they could then control the amount produced and keep prices high. This was similar to the way OPEC tried to control production and DeBeers tried to maintain the price of diamonds, which are plentiful.
It worked. The more you dig into the environmental movement, the more you see Rockefeller money. The Rockefellers have supported most environmental influencers, from Rachel Carson to the World Economic Forum to the Sierra Club to the World Wildlife Fund. The Rockefellers paid millions to universities to set up environmental programs and endow climate professorships. As recently as 2023, Rockefeller Foundation committed $1 billion to the “green energy transition.” Many billionaires have followed this signal, contributing hundreds of billions of dollars to “net zero” objectives, think tanks, and universities. At this point, the amount of agreement on climate change is exactly proportional to the amount of money being spent on it.
In the 1960s and 70s, it was fashionable to construct arguments that CO2 was causing climate change. Even Exxon’s researchers were fooled by papers using radiative models based on tank experiments with CO2. Then Al Gore, Tim Wirth, and James Hansen announced to the world that CO2 was going to cook the planet. David Fenton’s PR firm got involved, and the money started flowing in.
This explains why on two of Gore’s book covers, the hurricanes are spinning the wrong way. Because it doesn’t matter. What matters is scaring people and getting them to believe that giving money to environmental groups and governments (and him) is the only solution.
The money has gone to support various projects: wind energy, solar energy, decarbonization, grids and connectors, batteries, and “smart” infrastructure, not to mention activist groups, marketing agencies, fundraising consultants, and PR firms. So far, about $9 trillion dollars have been spent on the “energy transition.”
All of this is based on the assumption that wind and solar plus batteries can replace dispatchable fossil-fuel-driven power plants and nuclear energy. After spending roughly $9 trillion of mostly taxpayer dollars, the US went from getting 76.8% of our energy from fossil fuels in 2000 all the way down to 76.5% in 2023. That’s because wind turbines generate about 25 percent of their stated capacity factor, and solar panels generate about 10 percent. They rely on back-up power 100 percent when they can’t produce energy. Worse, they all provide energy to the grid at the same time in a given region - when electricity is cheapest, and people who rely on that power must buy it back later when electricity is more expensive. This leads to the rule that the more intermittent power a grid carries, the more expensive its energy is.
Most wind farms so far have lasted 20 years and haven’t had a positive return on investment. Many are shutting down because they are too expensive to operate. More and more license auctions are going without bidders. As soon as you remove the subsidies and price guarantees from wind energy, no investors want to invest. Every single wind farm or solar array must be paired with a fossil-fuel plant to take over when necessary, and those plants do not operate efficiently under stop-and-go conditions. The more renewable energy sources you add to the grid, the more you get of that thing you don’t want in the first place: CO2 emissions.
The price of Net Zero is astonishingly high, and the benefits are negative (blackouts, grid failure, energy poverty, minerals required, etc). The only people who profit from this movement are the rent seekers who want to get some of the cash being thrown overboard in bulk.
There are no commercial batteries that can power even a small town for a whole day. The largest batteries can supply minutes of power to the grid at scale, not even hours. Plus, to charge those batteries, you must dedicate even more land area to renewables. This has caused tremendous tension between Denmark — the world’s leading producer of wind energy — and Norway, which provides consistent back-up power. Denmark has one of the most expensive, unscalable energy systems in the world.
It also doesn’t make sense to electrify everything, especially for political purposes. Trains can easily be electrified, but trucks can’t. Most industrial processes need much more heat than electricity can provide. Heating should be done with natural gas, and air conditioning should be done with electricity. Jets and boats should use whatever combination of fuel and technology is most effective at scale. We have a fantastic fossil-fuel delivery infrastructure. Electrical grids operate optimally when the load can be planned ahead of time.
4. Belief Systems
In the Seventies, it became fashionable to be concerned about the environment. Many books and promoters were funded by the Rockefellers and their beneficiaries. Soon, environmentalism became mainstream, and the cause was more important than the data. Rather than doing science, many groups looked for charismatic leaders who could raise funds. There were many predictions about climate and billions of dollars were spent on models, yet none of those predictions came true, and the models have been predicting higher-than-observed temperatures from the beginning.
Now, it’s no longer about science. It’s about identity. Researchers have shown that people are easily influenced by their political beliefs when looking at data.
People have been conditioned by weaponized language like “climate denier” and “We own the science.” Textbooks explain climate change in simplistic terms that is not based on the peer-reviewed literature. Teachers don’t know anything. Government agencies, foundations, and the press use storytelling and fearful language to create a “crisis” that’s been going on (not happening) for 40 years now. They present pseudoscience and trust that people are not critical thinkers, because it’s the narrative, not the details, that count. Why? Because it makes money. All you need to do is show pictures of fires, floods, and hurricanes, and people believe these natural disasters are now caused by evil oil companies. The trick is repetition and visual imagery. An existential crisis that you can point to on the ground right now is taylor-made for media companies to turn eyeballs into cash.
At school, children are not allowed to ask questions. Almost no one, including professional “climate scientists,” knows much of anything about the climate. The Chinese government pays hundreds of “researchers” to contribute to the IPCC reports, so they can maintain a strong voice in the UN, while they have no intention of decarbonizing and are building two new coal-based power plants every week.
Stanford, Yale, Columbia, MIT, and many other universities are all-in on the climate disaster. They rely on huge donations from billionaires and government grants that have been coming in for decades. On almost any campus in the US, in any climate-PhD factory, it is not okay to ask these questions.
The issue has become politicized. Notice that the big promoters of the climate scare are all liberals. There are no conservative billionaires or oil companies funneling money to people like me who stand up for the scientific method. When Bill Gates writes a book on climate, everyone believes he knows what he’s talking about. We hear scary stories of climate on the news daily. We hear “A recent paper in the journal Nature predicts that in 2050, half of the earth will be uninhabitable and there will be six billion climate refugees.” yet after 50 years of scary environmental predictions, including alar, ozone holes, plastics, and much more, not one of them has come true.
It really isn’t about climate at all. It’s about money. Al Gore and his friends created an industry. Now, many groups want to get their hands on a piece of the $2 trillion dollar pie going into climate projects each year. There are even climate architecture and climate law firms now. Disasters and “crises” are great fundraising tools. John Stossel calls this crisis activism — many people are happy to champion the crisis that pays the most money. When you see hundreds of private jets parked in a petro-state airport for a big climate conference, you understand that everything is going to plan.
Even though the peer-reviewed literature shows no climate crisis, even though there isn’t a single paper showing that CO2 is driving temperature, even though Germany and Denmark’s virtue signaling has been near suicidal for their economies, even though the models are always wrong, we are long past talking about facts and science. We are heading off a very real economic cliff that hurts everyone, especially poor people, especially the environment.
Now is the time to fix this. We need to work on messaging. We can do it better together than individually.
5. Bad ideas
Not a single pilot project anywhere in the world shows any group of people living completely off solar, wind, and electricity storage. Several have tried and failed. We cannot spend trillions of dollars decarbonizing and get nothing for it. The rent seekers must find another way to make a living. More things that are a complete waste of money:
Trying to remove CO2 from the atmosphere
Cloud seeding to block the sun
Trying to protect glaciers
Funding billions of dollars worth of bad research
Climate conferences
Climate accounting
Climate law and lawsuits
Climate regulations
Carbon credits
Mining more lithium, copper, and rare-earths
Putting a price on carbon
Developing grid-scale energy storage
Electrifying energy
Electric trucks
Electric vehicles
Intermittent-adapting the grid
Heat pumps in cold places
Anything to do with hydrogen
Relying on neighbors for power when you have none
Any wind power connected to the grid
Any solar power connected to the grid
7. Work with me
I’m a member of the CO2 Coalition — a group of critical-thinking scientists and communicators who want to accomplish all these things. We have done the scientific work. We don’t all completely agree on exactly how Earth’s complex climate system works, but we do agree on one thing: more CO2 is better, and less land area dedicated to solar and wind is better for the grid, for society, and for the environment.
I want to help corporations be part of the solution. I want to help you educate and communicate with your stakeholders. I run classes, workshops, create events, and work on documents. I’m looking for funding for my debate. We can put together a new alliance of corporate officers who will go against the ESG machine and demand that companies go back to what they are designed to do: create and deliver excellent products and services. This is the best possible thing for poor people, society, and the future. Let’s stop shooting ourselves in the foot and start working together to make a better world for all.
See my programs page for details. There’s a lot of material here on this website. Contact me. Tell me what you need to do to improve your business and what’s in your way.