Climate scientists

Tyler Cowen writes:

I’ve stressed on MR many times that climate change is not in fact an existential risk, but it could be a civilization-destroying risk if we just keep on boosting carbon emissions without end. I don’t know a serious scientist who takes issue with that claim.

A few serious scientists: Richard Lindzen, Will Happer, Judith Curry, John Clauser, Ivar Giaever

Dear Tyler,

There are, in fact, a few serious scientists who take issue with that claim, and you should meet some of them. My response is in three parts, plus information about a class I teach and a call for a proper debate:

Part I: Over 9,000 scientists with PhDs take issue with that claim

First, a group of volunteer scientists put together a list of over 31,000 scientists who signed a petition asking for people who agreed with the statement:

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing, or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth’s atmosphere and destruction of the earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of earth.

More than 9,000 people with PhDs signed that petition. Many more are working scientists with master’s degrees. Feel free to discount those numbers by some amount if you wish, but those signatures are just a sample of a much larger number. Other lists include …

members of the CO2 Coalition
scientists who have signed the Clintel Declaration
Brazilian scientists who signed a statement to the government of Brazil
a list on Github (don’t know anything about this one)

Of course, numbers of “believers” don’t determine scientific outcomes, consensus is not how science is done, but I’m responding here to a specific claim and want to introduce you to some people you don’t know.

Part II: A curated list of serious scientists with PhDs who take issue with that claim

Total so far: 168

These people with Ph.Ds have all gone on record saying that CO2 is beneficial and is not causing any degree of worrying climate change, even in the extreme limit that humans could produce. I have validated their credentials. Some of them probably signed the above petition. Those still alive (most) are actively helping people learn that today’s climate science is mostly propaganda, lies, and bad models.

I'm leaving out working scientists …

with master's degrees (too many to count).
with MDs (also too many).
who can't afford to go on the record in fear of losing their jobs (far too many).
who asked to be left off for professional reasons but said they support the idea.

To be honest, there are many more PhD’ed scientists than I can document properly. In case you think MIT PhDs get extra credit, they are in blue (with apologies to those from Princeton, Cal Tech, and Stanford) and Nobel laureates in red:

Alexander, Ralph — physics, Oxford University
Alexandris, Stavros — agricultural sciences, Agricultural University of Athens
Ault, Earl — plasma physics, UCLA
Baeuerle, Patrick — biology, Universities of Konstanz and Munich
Bailunas, Sallie — astrophysics, Harvard University
Bednyagin, Denis — economics of innovation in energy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL)
Bengtsson, Lennaert — meteorology, University of Sweden, former director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg
Balino, Jorge Luis — nuclear engineering, Instituto Balseiro, Argentina
Ball, Tim (dec) — geography and historical climatology, Queen Mary University, London
Berkhout, Guus — physics cum laude, Delft University
Best, Clive — high energy physics, University of Liverpool
Bhattacharyya, Samit — nuclear engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Billman, Ken — physics MIT, NASA, National Academy of Sciences
Blaisdell, Charles — chemical engineering, University of Iowa
Bohn, Edward — nuclear engineering, university of Illinois
Bovy, Arnold — heat transfer, RETH Aachen, Germany
Boyce, Matt — geology, university of West Virginia
Brady, Howard Thomas — Antarctic science, University of Northern Illinois
Briggs, William — mathematical statistics, Cornell University
Burns, Tony — chemistry, University of New South Wales
Buson, Christian — agronomy, L'Institut Agro Rennes-Angers, France
Camp, Sharon — analytical chemistry, Georgia Tech
Carlin, Alan — economics, MIT
Carr, John — physics, Imperial College, London
Carter, Robert — paleontology, University of Cambridge
Chiaudani, Alessandro — agriculture, Università di Chieti-Pescara, Italy
Chilingarian, George — petroleum engineering, University of Southern California
Christy, John — atmospheric sciences, University of Illinois, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Clark, Roy — chemical physics, University of Sussex, UK
Clauser, John — physics, Columbia University, founded and chaired the aeronautics department at Johns Hopkins University, Nobel prize in physics
Clukey, Eric — geotechnical engineering, Cornell
Cohen, Roger (dec) — physics, Rutgers
Collum, David — chemistry, Columbia University
Connolly, Michael — spectroscopy, Trinity College, Dublin
Connolly, Ronan — computational chemistry, University College, Dublin
Cullen, Andrew — geography, University of Oklahoma
Curry, Judith — geophysical sciences, University of Chicago
Crockford, Susan — biology, University of British Columbia
de Lange, Cornelis Andreas “Kees” — chemistry, University of Bristol
D'Alonzo, Raphael — analytical chemistry, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Delibero Angelo, Johnson — nuclear technology, materials science, University of São Paulo
Derakhshani, Maaneli “Max” — physics, University of Utrecht
Du Berger, Reynald — Geophysics emeritus, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi
Don Easterbrook, geology — University of Washington
Dyson, Freeman (dec) — received 20 honorary PhDs and was a vocal skeptic of AGW
Enstrom, James — physics, Stanford
Felicio, Ricardo Augusto — physical geography, University of São Paulo
Firth, Brian — fluid dynamics, Oxford University
Fournier, Joseph — physical chemistry, University of Calgary
Frank, Neil — meteorology, Florida State University; former director of the National Hurricane Data Center
Frank, Pat — physics, Stanford Linear Accelerator
Fricke, Martin — physics, Oak Ridge National Laboratories
Fulks, Gordon — physics, University of Chicago
Furfari, Samuel — energy, University of Brussels
Gannon, Terry — device physics, University of California at Santa Barbara
Gerhard, Lee — geology emeritus, University of Kansas
Gerry, Edward — nuclear engineering, MIT
Giaever, Ivar — physics, RPI, Nobel prize in physics
Gray, William (dec) — geophysical sciences, University of Chicago
Green, Kenneth P. — environmental science, UCLA
Gulberg, Lawrence — Analytical Chemistry, University of Washington
Happer, Will — physics emeritus, Princeton
Harde, Hermann — experimental physics, University of Kaiserslautern
Harris, Stuart Arthur — geology, Queen Mary University, London
Hayden, Howard "Cork" — physics emeritus, University of Connecticut
Higginbotham, Joseph — physics, University of Toledo
Hogan, C Michael — physics, Stanford University
Hohenberg, Charles — physics, University of California Berkeley
Holmes, Robert Ian — climate mitigation, Federation University, Australia
Humlum, Ole — glacial geomorphology, University of Copenhagen
Idso, Craig — geography, Arizona State; founder and chairman of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Idso, Sherwood — soil science, University of Minnesota
Islam, Aziz — geology, University of Sheffield
Itoh, Kiminori — industrial chemistry, University of Tokyo
Hansen, Jens Morten — geology, University of Copenhagen
Jaworowski, Zbigniew — natural sciences, Warsaw
Johnston, Jason — economics, University of Michigan
Kalghatgi, Gautam — aeronautical Engineering, Bristol University
Kalveks, Rudolph — Theoretical Physics, Imperial College, London
Kelly, Michael Joseph — solid state physics, Cambridge
Kendrick, Hugh — physics, Cal Tech
Kilty, Kevin — geophysics, University of Utah
Klein, Richard E. — engineering, Purdue University
King, David — seismology, Australian National University
Lama, William — physics, University of Rochester
Ledger, John — tropical pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Legates, David — climatology, University of Delaware
Lewis, Marlo Jr — government, Harvard University
Lindzen, Richard —applied mathematics, MIT; professor of atmospheric sciences emeritus at MIT
Linsay, Paul — physics, University of Chicago
Lomborg, Bjorn — political science, University of Copenhagen
Luning, Sebastian — geology/Paleontology, University of Bremen
Lynch, William — solid state physics, Princeton & MIT
MacDonald, Digby — chemistry, university of Calgary
Manheimer, Wallace — physics, MIT
Madarasz, Frank — condensed Matter Theoretical Physics, University of Alabama at Huntsville
Maia, Thiago — nuclear physics and astrophysics,
Mann, Richard — physical chemistry, Princeton
Masson, Henri — chemical engineering processes, University of Brussels
McCall, Gene — applied mathematics and plasma physics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Former Chief Scientist at Air Force Space Command
McKittrick, Ross — economics, University of Guelph
Mearns, Euan — isotope geochemistry, University of Aberdeen
Meeus, Ferdinand — chemistry, photophysics, photochemistry, KU Leuven
Michaels, Patrick (dec) — ecological climatology, University of Wisconsin at Madison; was president of the American Association of State Climatologists and program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society
Mickelson, Edward — chemistry, Rice University
Moore, John — economics, University of Virginia
Moore, Patrick — ecology University of British Columbia
Moring, Jill — chemistry, University of Connecticut
Mullis, Kary (dec) — biochemistry, University of California, Berkeley
Nakamura, Mototaka — meteorology, MIT
Nascimento, Rafaella — chemistry, University of Montreal
Nichols, Rodney — physics, Harvard; past President and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences
Nordangård, Jacob — Technology and Social Change, Linköping University
Nordin, Ingemar — Philosophy of Science, Lund University
Ott, Markus — organic chemistry, University of Saarland
Parish, Trueman — engineering, Rice University
Park, Seok Soon — environmental science, Rutgers
Parmentola, John — physics, MIT
Peiser, Benny — political science, University of Frankfurt
Plimer, Ian — Geology at Macquarie University, Australia
Poppe, Hugo (dec) — Climatology, KU-Leuven
Poyet, Patrice — geochemistry, Université de Nice, France
Préat, Alain — geology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Prestininzi, Alberto — geology, Università di Roma La Sapienza
Reitz, Rolf — mechanical and aerospace engineering, Princeton
Rickard, Terry — Engineering Physics, University of California, San Diego
Ridd, Peter — physics, James Cook University (was head of physics department before they let him go for expressing his thoughts on climate science)
Ridley, Matt — biology, Oxford
Ritchie, Gary — forest biology, University of Washington
Robinson, Art — biochemistry, University of California San Diego
Rossiter, Caleb — Policy, Cornell University
Salby, Murry (dec) — environmental dynamics, Georgia Tech
Scafetta, Nicola — physics, University of North Texas, Duke University
Schernikau, Lars — economics, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
Schoneveld, Chris — structural geology, Universiteit Leiden
Netherlands
Seitz, Frederick (dec) — solid-state physics, Princeton
Sevenhans, Joannes — electrical engineering, KU Leuven
Shanmugam, Ganapathy — geology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Shaviv, Nir, solar science — Israel Institute of Technology (Technion)
Sheahan, Tom — physics, MIT
Singer, S. Fred (dec) — physics, Princeton
Skrable, Kenneth — radiology, Rutgers
Soepyan, Fritz Bryan — chemical engineering, University of Tulsa
Soon, Willie — aerospace engineering, University of Southern California
Spencer, Roy — meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison; works for NASA
Steele, Charles — economics, New York University
Svensmark, Henrik — physics, Technical University of Denmark
Staddon, John — experimental psych at Harvard and MIT; biology emeritus at Duke
Thomas, Mario — chemistry, Universite Laval, Canada
Thornton, Charles — structural mechanics, New York University
Tol, Richard — economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Tolk, Norman — atomic physics, Columbia University
Trevino, Andres — chemical engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Vahrenholt, Fritz — chemistry, University of Münster
Van Wijngaarden, William — physics, York University; chair of faculty of science and engineering
Vinos, Javier — biochemistry, Autonomous University of Madrid; author of Climate of the Past, Present, and Future - a Scientific Debate (the best book on climate ever written)
Viterito, Arthur — geography, University of Denver
Vogel, Koen — geology, Penn State
Walters, William — physical chemistry, University of Maryland
Ward, Frederick Jr — meteorology, MIT
Wathelet, Marc — molecular biology, Free University of Brussels
Watson, Thorpe — Metallurgy & Materials Science, The University of Birmingham
Whitehouse, David — astrophysics, Victoria University of Manchester
Wielicki, Matthew — earth science, UCLA
Winters, Terry — chemistry, University of Wales
Valentina Zharkova — astrophysics, Main Astronomical Observatory, Kiev, Ukraine
Zhong, Yong — physics, Monash University, Australia
Zybach, Bob — environmental science, Oregon State

Those who want to be added — send me your name, department and university that issued your Ph.D.

You can find plenty of criticism of most of these people online. These are the scientists old enough or brave enough not to be threatened. Calling them names does not delete the importance of their contributions to science. If you don’t know who Giordano Bruno was, that’s exactly my point. Science has a serious credibility problem.

The risk of net-zero

Many of us agree with the statement that going to net-zero via renewables is a threat to civilization as we know it because the math of net-zero doesn’t work, both for economic and ecological reasons. I don’t speak for everyone, and I only have a master’s degree, but I believe most of us agree that a gradual, market-based transition to nuclear energy with no wind, minimal solar, minimal battery storage, minimal regulation, and minimal government subsidies is the best energy policy. Intermittent power makes everyone poorer, especially in Africa. No one should have to suffer from energy poverty. Governments should support the development of fossil-fuel-based grids to provide affordable, reliable baseload power and focus environmental resources on local issues like pollution, spills, cleanups, prevention, etc. Governments should support efforts to build nuclear power plants the market wants, not through subsidies but through reduced regulation and stronger international agreements.

No country, no state, no city, no company, no organization should have a climate policy, because humans can’t affect the climate.

Part III: For further research

There is much more. There are papers, blogs, newsletters, organizations, books, videos, and YouTube channels all dedicated to getting the word out that scientifically, CO2 is not a driver of climate, we are currently in a CO2 famine, and more would be better. CO2 is plant food. It is not pollution. Greenhouses pump in CO2 to about 1,200 PPM to help plants grow. For 200 million years, from 550 million to 350 million years ago, CO2 was in the 2,000 to 8,000 PPM range (up to 20 times higher than today), the earth was generally (but not always) warmer than today, plants exploded, and life flourished. Even back then, CO2 drove plant growth but not the climate.

Climate science master class with David Siegel

This 12-unit class is now over. I expect to teach it again in the fall. See the class page for details and registration.

An important climate debate

We would be happy if you could help arrange a serious, long-format debate on the science. We are eager to debate. I think you’ll find precious few mainstream climate scientists interested in debate. The IPCC certainly isn’t.

So, Tyler, if you’d like to have a conversation with any of these people, let me know and I’ll set it up. All of us could read and learn more widely on many topics, as you’ve explained so many times. I’d love to help you do that.

Sincerely,

David Siegel